The ongoing global memory shortage isn't going away anytime soon. In fact, if recent projections are anything to go by, the situation could remain tight for several more years. Earlier, Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group, suggested that supply constraints in the memory industry might stretch all the way to 2030. At the time, it sounded like a broad warning. But newer reports are starting to put real numbers behind that claim.

And those numbers are not particularly comforting.

Demand Is Outpacing Supply, By A Wide Margin

According to recent insights reported by Nikkei Asia, major memory manufacturers are ramping up production. New fabrication plants are being planned and built. Investments are ongoing.

But even with all that effort, the industry is still expected to meet only around 60% of global demand by the end of 2027.

That gap is significant. It means demand is growing much faster than supply can realistically keep up, even with aggressive expansion plans in place.

New Factories Take Time, Lots Of It

Part of the challenge lies in how long it takes to bring new production facilities online.

Companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology are all investing heavily in new fabs. But these projects don't deliver instant results.

Take Samsung as an example. Its fourth fabrication plant at Pyeongtaek is expected to be completed around 2026. Even then, mass production is only projected to begin sometime in 2027 or later. A fifth plant is already in planning, but that one may not be operational until 2028 or beyond.

SK Hynix is also pushing forward with a new facility in Yongin. While construction is slightly ahead of schedule, completion is still expected around early 2027.

In other words, capacity expansion is happening, but it moves on a multi-year timeline. There is no quick fix.

The Growth Gap Problem

To stabilise the market, the memory industry would need to grow production by roughly 12% annually through 2027.

However, current projections suggest actual growth will only reach about 7.5%.

That difference might sound small at first glance, but in a global supply chain, it adds up quickly. It means the industry is consistently falling short of what's needed to balance supply and demand.

Research from Counterpoint Research indicates that the situation may only begin to stabilise around 2028. Even that timeline is considered optimistic when compared to earlier warnings that shortages could persist closer to the end of the decade.

AI Is Changing The Priorities

Another key factor behind the shortage is where memory supply is being directed.

Manufacturers are increasingly prioritising high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in enterprise environments, especially for AI servers and data centres.

This shift makes sense from a business perspective. The demand for AI infrastructure has surged, and companies are allocating resources to meet that demand first.

But there's a trade-off.

Focusing on HBM means less capacity is available for consumer-grade memory products. So while data centres may get what they need, everyday devices like laptops, smartphones, and gaming hardware could continue facing limited supply or higher prices.

What This Means For The Market

For businesses and consumers alike, the implications are clear.

This isn't just a temporary bottleneck. It reflects a structural shift in how the memory industry is evolving.

Final Thoughts

The global memory shortage is no longer just a short-term disruption. It is becoming a long-term challenge shaped by infrastructure timelines, growing demand, and shifting priorities toward AI-driven technologies.

Even with new fabs on the way, the reality is that supply will take time to catch up. And until it does, the gap between what the world needs and what manufacturers can deliver will continue to define the market.

For now, the expectation is clear. The industry will improve, but not quickly enough to fully close the gap before the end of the decade.